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What drives inflation in CE/SEE?

Disinflation begins to unfold in Europe, CE/SEE countries included, primarily driven by base effects. Meanwhile, especially core and food price pressures remain high and broad. These two categories are key inflation drivers vs. a decline in contribution in the case of energy (amplified by ongoing government interventions).

  • By Dorota Strauch & Fabian Blasch
  • Market Trends

The inflation picture in CE/SEE countries remains distorted by diverse government measures that aim to mitigate the impact of increasing prices on households. These measures have become more comprehensive due to the continuous rise of inflation in 2022, with no sign of a peak in sight.

2023 is broadly expected to bring disinflation (which has already begun in many countries) driven by base effects amid lower fuel and energy prices (following more stable gas prices than in 2022). Despite the adjustments made to government measures in 2023, many of them remain in place or have been extended due to the historically high levels of inflation.

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